Spam bombs

Sigh...I had been doing so well. I guess a symptom of a non-obscure blog is one where the spam bots descend. I may have to turn off comments for a while.

World Energy Council

The World Energy Council is the most representative body of the energy industry with members in more than ninety countries. Its mission is to promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all. Every three years, the WEC holds the World Energy Congress, a major global energy event attracting 4,000+ delegates. The next Congress will be in Montreal in September, 2010 (from their website).

I had the privilege of representing Canada at the 1995 WEC Congress (thanks Canadian Gas Association!) I've set up a LinkedIn page for members of that congress to reconnect. If anyone of my readers would like to join and have attended a WEC event - either find the LinkedIn group, or email me.

Solar Grid Parity Calculation

I came across a post from a while back - April, 2008. In it the author describes the year at which residential rooftop solar reaches grid parity.


The post is brilliant in its simplicity. By taking NREL data, the average price of a solar module can be seen to be dropping at 6%/year. Extrapolating forward, while making the assumption that the installed cost will continue to be twice the module cost (which may not be true as improvements to module cost have seemed to be happening faster than installation improvements - but we can hope), as well as making a couple of other reasonable assumptions on interest rates and cost of electricity, he demonstrates through a pretty simple NPV analysis that by 2015, solar will have reached grid parity in Minnesota.

That's pretty striking, and he didn't provide what the solar resource was like in Minnesota (although, it might be pretty good - there is a latitude issue, but I bet that there aren't many clouds).


















I like this analysis because it is so simple, and it's fairly easy to change any assumptions that you might disagree with and see what there effect is. This graph from Solarbuzz shows that module prices have started to work through the silicon shortage (it had to happen sometime!) and prices have resumed their downward trek. This might push out the grid parity time an additional five years - or, due to the billions of investment dollars that have gone into solar in the last few years (and given First Solar's announcement of <$1/W manufacturing cost) the price reduction curve could accelerate from 6%/yr to 10%/yr or beyond. At any rate, this is exciting as I believe that since electricity is a commodity, there will be a sharp tipping point once the economics work out, and this is all foreseeable in the next few years.

NOAA Climate Change Report (and DocStoc)

NOAA, in conjunction with the National Science and Technology Council have recently released their report Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. This report is very detailed, with lots of useful up to date graphs and charts. It's extremely data-heavy, which I like. I've seen snippets of it floating around the blogosphere recently.

If you'd like to have a read, I've included the embedded link.


Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States -

The second half of this post talks about the link and the service I used, called DocStoc. There are several file sharing websites out there - most of them focus on Powerpoint hosting (I've used Slideshare in the past). However, what I discovered I like about Docstoc is that it's really built a fantastic library of documents, beyond just presentations. I've used it to find technical documents, marketing brochures, legal templates, etc. Google can be great for finding a link to a published work, but you won't necessarily be able to get at the actual document. Whereas DocStoc's inventory is far less - anything you do find you have full access to, which is sometimes all you need. Having full access to a smaller pool of material can usually be more helpful than having partial access to a larger pool, and what they've put together is really neat.

Secretary Chu Announces Nearly $50 Million to Accelerate Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps

CleanEdge reported today on the DOE's commitment of $50m to Geothermal Heat Pumps.

Geothermal heat pumps are nothing new. In fact, I recall hearing about them way back in my first thermodynamics class in engineering. The idea is that you pump heat from the outside when it is cold and pump heat to the outside when it is hot is simple. Given that, you want your outside temperature sink to be as hot as possible when it is cold out, and as cold as possible when it is hot out. The temperature of the ground, several feet below the surface makes this a far more attractive reservoir than just the ambient air.

So what's the problem? Well, a big issue is the fact that installing a geothermal heat pump is a custom job, involving digging up and installing an underground network of plumbing. For many homeowners, the cost of installing isn't worth the payback period. Well, what about the initial builder? Surely it is much cheaper to install when the house is first being built? Well, yes, but as everything in the green building space, if the developer can't charge more for the building because of an installation, then it's not worth putting in the installation, no matter how cheap it is. This is the classic developer/owner market failure that plagues any kind of efficient building (ie, the developer isn't the one paying the utility bill, and yet can't capture the long-term value of putting in efficient systems).

So, could this spur innovation to reduce up-front costs of these systems? Let's hope so!

CafePress - Sign of the Times

I've known about CafePress for years. I think it's a genius way of running a "user generated content" business. They handle all of the logistics, manufacturing, customer relations and finance. You provide the content. I think it's a model of how to leverage a core competency of manufacturing, and I'd love to see similar businesses in other areas.

To try it out, I took a quote from a great artist and photographer friend of mine, Rob Shaer, and turned it into a collection of stuff. The quote, which I thought was a brilliant summation of how much things have changed in the past three years is:

"Is it possible to have work-life balance without the work?"

Overall the process is pretty smooth, although it was several hours of work to come up with a design, do all the Photoshop fiddling, make two version (depending on landscape or portrait mode), and then create the right sizes for each of the scores of items offered.

I thought about taking silly things down (like the intimate underwear), but it was going to be more work to filter everything, and besides, maybe someone will want them.

Overall, I was impressed with the process and big thumbs up to the CafePress team for putting together a great site. I'll track the performance over the next few months, but if you are interested, or know of some soul run over by the train wreck of this economy who might be cheered up, be sure to purchase something and I'll let people know how it turned out.

WTF? The baddest green machine out there.

This weekend I came across the ultimate in mixed branding - the Hybrid Escalade. With a hybrid option to the standard Cadillac Escalade, it is now possible to eek out an astonishing 20 MPG out of this 8 passenger transport. With a base price of $74k (as opposed to the base of $63k for the regular Escalade) this might master from Detroit certainly targets the upper income range for car purchasers. From a fuel consumption point of view, the improvement, as I understand it, is somewhere from 14mpg to 20mpg - or about 6mpg. At 15,000 miles/year, this is 321 gallons/year savings. At $3/gallon, that's $963/year, which would probably not make this justify the price premium.

But the real question is: does the "Hybrid" badge do anything, from a marketing point of view? Most hybrids have a halo effect (and, if you can drive in the carpool lane, a time-saving benefit as well). With the MANY "Hybrid" badges plastered on this vehicle, clearly the hybridization matters, but reaction from many indicates that this vehicle is more one of amazement and scorn.