Back when I was trying to make Energy Cache work, a big headwind that I ran into was the falling price of natural gas due to fracking. The EIA reported that gas prices for electric power generation were hovering around $3.
I tried to make the argument that, long term, prices would go back up. And by early 2014, they had - almost to $8/MMBtu.
However, I just checked recently and they are back to $3. This is crazy. Look at the Year on Year variability!
It's not that uncommon for the price of gas to be either 50% higher or 50% cheaper than the year prior. Hedging this risk must be crazy expensive, and there has to be an opportunity in here somewhere.
Of course...we think there is - by moving your peaking and firming fuel from gas to the sun. :-)
All data from: